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Dispatches by DiploPolis brings you sharp analysis and pointed commentary on the week's most consequential developments in global politics. No noise. No neutrality. Just argument.
Dispatches
European Waters, Israeli Rules
The interception happened 600 miles from Gaza. Not at the edge of the blockade zone. Not in contested waters off the Palestinian coast. Six...
Terminated: War That Ended Without Ending
Trump has notified Congress that the Iran war is terminated. On the same day the Navy announced it would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz with 15,000 service members. A tanker was struck hours later. Iran called it a ceasefire violation. The war is over because he said so. The Navy is still there because he said so. Both statements are simultaneously true.
Annexation That Hides in Plain Sight
Israel approved 34 new settlements in a single classified meeting while its citizens ran to bomb shelters. Bezalel Smotrich called it 'killing the idea of a Palestinian state.' He said it openly, with American backing, at a ribbon cutting attended by cabinet ministers. The creeping annexation is over. What is happening now has a different name.
Negotiation and the Threat
Washington is negotiating in Havana. Washington is also threatening Havana with military action. After January's operation in Caracas — a capital city struck, a president seized in handcuffs, 32 Cuban soldiers killed — Cuba knows exactly what refusal looks like. These are not talks between partners. This is a countdown.
Weapon That Turned Around
Iran has between 12 and 22 days of unused crude oil storage remaining. Exports have collapsed 70 per cent under the US naval blockade. When the storage runs out, Iran will be forced to cut production by a further 1.5 million barrels per day. A country that closed a strait to inflict economic pain is running out of places to put its own oil.
Pause Without Peace: How the US-Iran Ceasefire Was Built to Fail
As of this morning, Trump's national security team is reviewing an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, halt the war and defer...
